It seems obvious enough that there’s a mad scramble to try and control ALL possible outcomes of whatever current situation Duterte is in. So much lying going on, yes? And so much more being kept from us deliberately, i.e., the state of President’s health. This lack of transparency is alarming because it cuts across everything, and as with all corrupt governments, it comes with the requisite bushel of lies.

But that’s stuff for another day. Right now, there’s a need to keep track of where we are, given the fact that it looks and feels like one of those instances when Duterte and his people are working overtime to ensure that they can keep the people under control, as they figure out how to handle what seems like a certainty: that Duterte will be unable to finish his term (just look at his face), or at least will want to get his term over with (just listen to what he says, over and over).

How many exits does Duterte need, or require, and who’s holding the door for him as he bids the Presidency goodbye?

(A) Duterte’s military and police. We’re talking the Armed Forces of the Philippines (APF) that’s loyal to Duterte, spoken for by Defense Chief Delfin Lorenzana and AFP Chief Carlito Galvez, as well as the Philippine National Police (PNP) as spoken for by PNP Chief Albayalde. Duterte’s Men in the military and police manufactured the Red October plot soon after Duterte announced it existed, and they pointed a finger at all government critics left, right, center, but in the end were forced to say that they only really had their eyes on the CPP-NPA and the Leftists. The plot but fizzled out because we all pushed back. Even people who might not care for the Left couldn’t believe that government was insisting on an ouster plot in a time of crisis. As Pinoy social media (thankfully!) pointed out: Hindi naman kasalanan ng aktibista na bagsak ang ekonomiya, ang presyo ng langis, at ang hirap ng buhay. Oo nga naman.

But the military and police taking control of this narrative of an ouster plot, and alongside the militarization of the Cabinet, is consistent with Duterte’s repeated pronouncement: he wouldn’t mind a military junta taking over. Just talk to him straight, and he will give up the presidency to a military junta.

An old story, yes? In 1986 Enrile etal were planning on a military junta after deposing Marcos. Guess who changed their plans? The people. Who decided they wanted Cory. And who were already participating in the boycott of Marcos crony businesses. By the time Enrile and Ramos decided they were going to be the “rebel forces” standing against the dictator, they were pretty much at the mercy of people power. And WE decided we wanted Cory. Keep that in mind. (Also read up on the EDSA Revolution.)

(B) Gloria Arroyo’s Congress. The moves of GMA are despicable and unacceptable: this woman is the epitome of the worst kind of politician and Congress Rep there is. Her moves to now push Charter Change is even more offensive not just because she wanted to do it and kept trying to do it in her nine years as President. It is offensive because she had said in August that it was not going to happen, allowing us all to breathe easy after building up our #StopChaCha campaign. The SONA 2018 United People’s Action was against the ChaCha, and we were set to keep at it, until Duterte’s proposed shift to federalism was killed.

Gloria, telling us there was not enough time to do it, was enough for us to refocus our energies on other crises: after all inflation and TRAIN were more urgent. Of course recently we found out that Congress, led by Gloria, had kept at it, and it has since breezed through the committee level, and is up for debate in the plenary. This is Gloria’s ChaCha: no term limits for congress reps like her, no anti-dynasty provision, no Vice President in succession in case anything happens to the President, easing of limits on foreign ownership of businesses and land in the Philippines, and a way to declare federal states.

Get this: it’s not even a Constitution that will mean a shift to federalism, which is the Duterte promise and premise of stepping down. It’s just charter change that will keep Gloria and politicos like her in power. It’s like showing Duterte the exit so Gloria can ease into his seat.

On the upside: the people stood against Gloria’s moves to change the charter, over and over again, in the past. We can do it again.

(C) The Presidential Electoral Tribunal. And the Marcos forces. The easiest exit for Duterte was always the one that Bongbong Marcos was leading him to: get BBM the Vice Presidency, and Duterte can retire. We know this much because Duterte has called the Marcos son “vice president” before, and we know it remains a possibility because Duterte insists that VP Leni Robredo, the duly elected vice president, is not fit to take over.

We could easily think this to be Duterte’s misogyny talking. But more than that, it is his politics. It’s also his survival instincts kicking in. Having a President Leni would mean Duterte paying for his sins to nation sooner than later. Having a President Leni will mean all his men, military and police and the Cabinet, Filipino and Chinese, from Manila to Davao, from communications Asec to economic adviser, paying big time for what they’ve done to nation the past two years.

Ah, but this exit doesn’t look feasible. To start with the PET clearly isn’t in the Marcoses’ pocket. Secondly, there is a pretty clear line drawn against the Marcoses — we went out to the streets about that burial, spontaneously. We might not all have voted for VP Leni, but we are all pretty clear about not wanting the Marcoses back in Malacañang.

We’ve done people power against the Marcoses before, we can do it again.

(D) Duterte’s Revolutionary Government. What has been a constant since Duterte became president is this call for a revolutionary government. Few actually care for these calls, absurd as it is to give Duterte “absolute power” because “the people” “trust him completely.” Yes, this comes from the mouths of diehard Duterte supporters, and no they do not speak of the majority of us who will not stand for giving anyone at all absolute power.

This of course has not meant that the #RevGov campaign has stopped. In fact, often enough, it is revived by the usual suspects, from Duterte propagandists to those who pushed him to run for President, insisting that it is the answer to nation’s woes. With RevGov, Duterte will be able to control everything, and pretty much start from scratch. Sometimes Duterte claims that this is something that was given to Cory Aquino after the EDSA Revolution of 1986, so why can’t it be given to him? He forgets that the revolutionary government of Cory was borne of people power and the fact that we were coming from decades of authoritarian rule that had ruined our institutions, including the Constitution. Cory was undoing what the authoritarian and dictator Marcos had done to nation.

This is not where we are now. To begin with, it’s pretty clear that the previous governments were not dictatorships, and this call to RevGov is really about Duterte being the dictator. It’s enough reason to stand against it. In fact, it’s why this just does not fly. We will not let it.

Duterte realizes it, too. He hasn’t talked about RevGov in a while, and has said in so many words that he does not want it. Ergo, options A, B, C.

An important note about all these exit strategies: ALL OF THEM BYPASS the Constitutional successor of Duterte, which is VP Leni. This is a reminder that in the end, and ultimately, what we should be working towards is galvanizing support for the VP. Because in the end (which seems nearer than ever), it is she that we will have to stand with, because it’s the only way to stand for democracy and freedom, at this point in time. ***