After the 2019 elections, I gave a short talk at an event in CubaoX and said very clearly and pointedly: this is a propaganda war. The 2019 results tell us that no matter student surveys, and good debate mileage, and better candidates, we are on a losing streak. The Liberal Party and the Left have public opinion going against it, no matter the delusions our social media echo chambers allow us to have. On ground, and in reality, a chunk of the population (43% is the number I’ve heard) are a hard no on LP, and going into the elections, this would be a hard no against VP Leni.

Did changing to the color pink from yellow mean anything? I think it did, especially for the middle and upper classes who are as incensed with LP and the kind of politics they stood for—2010 to 2016 is very very recent history after all. But the question now, with 61 days to go, is how far the pink has brought us, beyond our echo chambers, despite the rally numbers.

Yesterday a message went around calling on everyone to get out of echo chambers because despite the massive turnout and social and mainstream media noise about the consecutive rallies Robredo had last week, in reality the share of voice online was still dominated by Marcos. Again, as with surveys, this is data—real numbers that should tell us whether or not any and all parts of this campaign are going in the directions it needs to.

Do the surveys contradict the rally numbers? I don’t think so. The rallies and surveys come together as proof of the complexity of the electoral landscape. The numbers out there are important—these give the impression of mass support, and provides us with the content we need. But the numbers on the surveys are just as important, especially given how these also function as a way to prove mass support.

And this is why the call to step out of echo chambers is interesting with so little time left to May 9. That this call is still happening now, in March 2022, should be an indication that parts of this campaign have not succeeded. It is also interesting because the call itself highlights how in over our heads we are, how unable we have been, to break through to the 31% that can be converted to our side. This call also means that even among Robredo supporters, there are enough people looking at surveys and kind of admitting that those are true, despite rally numbers—and this is a good thing.

But what are we doing wrong? The past week might be instructive.

While we were looking at massive pink rallies on our feeds, and mainstream media covered the event, the Marcos side was launching a massive attack on Robredo, primarily on Tiktok, using what are fan content. The latter is important to understand here: the Marcoses have built a massive narrative where supporters function as a “fandom” of “Marcos legacy.” This gives them deniability (we do not know these people!), as well as freedom (we are just fans of the Marcoses).

It was this fandom that worked double time the past week. So while we were talking about the rally crowds, they were using Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to continue with their Leni Lugaw narrative. They used Robredo’s soundbite that parallel’s Ukraine with the battle for the West Philippine Sea as opportunity to continue the narrative that VP Leni is an idiot who is unfit to be President, because look at her, ready to go to war with powers like Russia (and China). Later on they would also parallel her with Zelenskyy, calling them both comedians who know nothing about geo-politics and have sacrifice their people for a war they cannot win. The past four days what has dominated the Marcos algo is also a rehash of Naga Leaks, old propaganda material against VP Leni and her husband.

Whether or not these are real is beside the point. Because in an electoral propaganda war, that it’s said at all and distributed at a scale (especially on un-monitored Tiktok), is enough. Whether it’s to keep voters against her, or convince people to go for Marcos, it functions as a way to drown out the positive noise surrounding the rallies.

Another thing surfaced this week, as it randomly has across the electoral campaign of Robredo: supporters brought out the big guns, and by that I mean, they fearlessly and shamelessly revealed their elitism. It seemed simple enough: Boying Remulla claimed without proof that people at the Cavite rally were paid to go. What should have been an opportunity to take down the Remullas themselves, and champion the Caviteño and their defiance against their leaders, became a class flex. Some Robredo supporters took to responding to Remulla by flexing their wealth and privilege: bakit naman ako tatanggap ng P500, eh may Hermes nga ako? Mas mahal pa ang sunscreen ko kesa sa P500 noh! Supporters ni VP Leni ginawang LED ang macbook air! And the most horrible: Abonados for Leni.

That these become content at all is highly problematic for a campaign already seen as elitist. That it could mean losing votes for Robredo is a real possibility. (In case it’s not clear, none of us are abonado kay VP Leni. Fighting for democracy and freedom and rights and justice—which is what May 9 is about—means we are spending on nation, and rightfully so.)

Online, the propaganda war is a content war, and your own ammo can be used against you. And when you’re up against the Marcoses who do not run out, you also do not want to be at the mercy simply of what they and their cohorts throw your way—that’s like always taking the bait. But then again, one also sees that after the consecutive rallies last week, and beyond the Remulla patol, there has been no new content from the Robredo campaign, and certainly nothing that seeks to get to the 31% that need to be converted in her favor.

It goes without saying: that there is still no narrative for Robredo that is inclusive, that cuts across social classes—especially that target demographic where voter conversion is still possible, is reason for worry. (No matter those rally numbers.) And no, speaking down to the voter, the way so much of the campaign materials do? That just doesn’t work.

This campaign started with the idea of radical love. Right now, what it needs is a radical enough shift that will fashion Robredo away from the elitism that the pink narrative ties her down to.

We have 61 days to go.

A snapshot of today

• The Robredo side has made a big deal out of a study that shows her taking over the Facebook sentiment. Very strange, considering that the message that went around yesterday was actually premised on the fact that BBM was still dominating share of voice online, despite the rally content.
• Also: the 17% to be converted come from classes D2 and E. They are barely online, mostly women in their 30s, lower educated. Should we not all be taking online claims to winning with a grain of salt?
• Without rallies, there is radio silence on the Robredo side with barely any new content. A campaign strategy? A strange one, to say the least.
• Speaking to people in the provinces—Tacloban, Catbalogan, Butuan, Tuguegarao, Iloilo, Cavite, Bacolod—and what they all have in common is that they do not have materials in their languages, they have no funds for these materials, and there is an admitted inability to reach beyond the usual suspects who would’ve voted for Robredo anyway.  In Samar and Iloilo many place away from the center still have no idea who VP Leni is.
• On Twitter, Liza Araneta content sprung up calling her the new first lady. If you’re not on Tiktok, this is a sneak peak into the fandom content that they’ve spent on since last last year. ***