Liberal Party – Katrina Stuart Santiago

I applauded when I heard over radio yesterday, through a Naga news report, that Naga Mayor Leni Robredo had categorically stated that she is not running for national office in 2028, and instead is keen on winning another term as mayor.

This politically made sense to me. Three years is not enough to do anything substantial on the local level, especially if one is undoing the kind of politics that was instituted by nine years (if not longer) of a predecessor.

This also just socio-culturally-politically made sense to me as voter, spectator, and citizen: Mayor Leni has disappeared from national discourse, and understandably so, since she lost the 2022 elections and especially since she won the 2025 local elections. There is absolutely no reason to imagine that she can win another presidential run, especially given the epic loss of the last one. Not only will there be enough material against her that will easily be revived and refurbished for an anti-Leni campaign; there will also be absolutely nothing to talk about in terms of her contributions on the national level since 2022.

I think VP Leni knows this. And I trust that she and her closest (female) circle know how unkind another presidential run will be for her and her daughters. It will be as painful for the rest of us, who campaigned for her in 2022, and who will know, deep down, that she is a non-starter at this point. We will be faced with a whole library of anti-Leni content that we failed to battle with in 2022. In 2028, we won’t even have enough weapons and ammunition to counter these attacks given her lack of national political work and engagement.

Which is why I cannot understand statements such as that of Senator Kiko Pangilinan’s, that insist that she can, might, should still change her mind, for reasons that are so deliberately naive, and also obviously conveniently silent on the other (more obvious) contenders.

Pangilinan says:

Today, given her rising poll numbers, I believe that Leni is in the best position to build the broadest and strongest unity not just amongst the ranks of the Liberal Party and our allies but to include all other groups and personalities outside our allied forces who are also looking to participating in the 2028 Presidential elections.

The Senator is being silly. The reason Leni is being polled at all is because she has refused to say she is not running for president. The moment polling companies remove Leni’s name from the list of choices, that is the only time we will see who can rise against Sara Duterte. And the sooner we have a sense of our choices, the better for all of us on the democracy side who are in this to ensure that we do not go through another Duterte presidency.

Leni polling higher than anyone else on our side is also no surprise given the nature of surveys; among short-term memory, name-recall, and pandemic visibility, she will be top of mind second to a Duterte. Those were, after all, the names of a former president and vice president.

The only reason polling companies will include Leni’s name now is if those who commission a survey insist that her name be put in. And if that is a strategy that even the Liberals etal will use for their commissioned surveys, then that just proves how unkind and manipulative they can be against someone who is, purportedly, their own.

More Pangilinan:

As her poll numbers grow, so will the number of politicians and groups of various political colors and civil society/private sector groups throwing their support behind her. A snowballing of support behind her bid is quite possible. With her at the helm going into 2028 and given her current poll numbers that are much higher now than in the run up to the 2022 Presidential elections, a formidable coalition, far broader and more inclusive than the one we forged in 2022, can be cobbled together and lead us to victory in 2028.

This is of course exactly what we thought in October 2021, when Leni announced (too late) that she was running for President, for exactly the same reasons that Pangilinan now invokes: “para sa bayan.”

Tigilan na ‘yang ganyang linyahan. Especially because this is also what Duterte propaganda has used as slogan since 2024, when Sara Duterte left the Marcos Cabinet, and even more so since 2025, when the former president was jailed. And because they have been saying this, at scale, across all platforms, more consistently than any of us on this side, this now has lost all meaning. Propaganda-wise, “para sa bayan” now invariably means another Duterte presidency.

Here’s more of Pangilinan sounding exactly like the dilawan-pinklawan that lost us the 2022 elections.

Now more than ever, having witnessed the largest corruption scandal in Philippine history, our people are crying out for good governance, and public accountability. Now more than ever, all those who believe in meaningful change and honesty and integrity in our public institutions must come together, sacrifice our time and effort for the sake of a better future for our children.

Big words ano. Good governance. Public accountability. Meaningful change. Honesty and integrity. I am not sure that any of these are the reasons why Leni is polling high at all. Political consciousness will tell us that more than anything, what people are remembering about Leni as VP is the work she did during the pandemic. At best, that was crisis management. And that is not at all what wins elections — because if that were true, she would’ve won 2022.

But Pangilinan’s biggest problem is that he even believes Leni to be the leader of the democratic movement that has a chance of winning 2028 for us.

I hope I am wrong but Leni’s refusal to run, may create a leadership vacuum that I am afraid cannot be adequately filled by other contenders, this in turn could lead to disunity amongst our ranks and the splintering of not just our forces but of all potential allies outside our ranks. The net effect will be the fielding of various political parties and groups of their respective Presidential bets, further weakening our chances and delivering victory to our adversaries.

This is echoed by Senator Leila De Lima:

umaasa talaga tayo na magbabago pa sya ng isip because for us, she’s still the most winnable among the possible opposition candidates.

Some things need to be said here. One, Leni has not been a leader of this movement for democracy since last year, when she won the Naga mayoralty race. In fact, we have not felt or heard Leni since she lost in 2022 — and that is good for her (kudos to her sense of distance and boundaries and self-care).

Two, when Leni ran in 2022, that did not stop other groups from fielding their own candidates. Ka Leody, Manny Pacquiao, Ping Lacson, Isko Moreno all ran, too, despite VP Leni. Pangilinan should stop kidding himself that they were able to gather a strong coalition around the Robredo-Pangilinan tandem.

Three, winnability was what we campaigned on, was the fuel that pushed us, in 2022. And we proved then that “winnability” to us will not mean winning with the larger majority of voters.

Lastly, whatever “vacuum” Pangilinan is worried about is a falsity. It’s only a vacuum because people like him insist that Leni is the the only person who has a fighting chance. This is absolutely false.

Which brings me to this question: why doesn’t Pangilinan — and many like him on the Liberal side — why doesn’t he consider someone like Risa Hontiveros a viable leader and contender for the 2028 presidential elections? Hontiveros has been at the forefront of urgent and critical investigations in the Senate, from the illegal POGO hubs to the West Philippine Sea; has been fighting with all of us for the divorce and SOGIE bills; has been an important voice on national issues since 2016, and even more so since 2022.

It is beyond me why there is such a silence on Hontiveros as, in fact, a level-up to Leni. The kind that will not dial back on her pro-divorce stance (as Leni did) when faced with the Catholic Church. The kind that will not suddenly compromise on her stance for equal rights and protection for LGBTQIA+ in the face of conservative criticism. The kind that can and will and has proven able to speak about democratic rights and systemic change in a language that we all understand, and in ways that are doable and imaginable and possible.

Pangilnan says:

We must forge the broadest unity possible for the cause of good governance and win this for our people and work together for a better future for our children.

Maybe the broadest unity is only possible when the Liberals like Pangilinan realize that when a woman says NO, she means it. And when another woman is willing and absolutely able to take on that spot vacated by the woman who said no, then we should also respect her enough to see her, name her, and work with her.

The burden at this point is not on Leni to change her mind. The burden is on the Liberals to tell us why they cannot imagine a 2028 battle for the presidency without her. ***

While political pundits in mainstream media claim that Sara Duterte’s resignation from the Marcos Cabinet was expected, it is important to speak of its timing. After all, on and for social media and digital platforms, everything is content, and major announcements like this one is fuel for mass drops and mileage. Over in the other country that is the Marcos-Duterte Tiktok algorithm, this resignation was not only expected, they were ready for it.

Since two days ago, the VP has taken over the algorithm like it’s nobody’s business, unseating the dominance of the Roque-MrSupranational memes, the West Philippine Sea content, and the usual Marcos-activities-based content. Considering that we had just come from Independence Day celebrations and the President continues to travel the country to distribute all sorts of assistance himself, there is usually enough content that sustains him. But Sara’s army has been pretty solid, churning out content that drowns out everybody else. Unsurprisingly, this includes a bunch of SMNI and SMNI-related accounts, solid Duterte accounts, and even accounts with low mileage, but which have been mass dropping support-Sara videos.

And when I say they were “ready” for it, I do also mean that the content has been making connections the mainstream cannot even begin to talk about. For example, highlighting the fact that it was also on June 19 two years ago when Sara had taken her oath as Vice President, which allows them to spin her resignation as an act that brings her back to the position she had won—the one that proves the love and support of “the people”—and not the position(s) that were given to her by the President turned non-ally. There also seems to be massive content that quickly drew the line between her and the President, not just ending the Uniteam illusion, but also championing the Sara side of it, the one that was green, the one that was about the eagle.

As with the Marcos legacy campaign of 2022, there is much here that harks back to the Duterte father’s 2016 campaign, with content declaring in so many words that change is finally coming, because Inday Sara is now free from her cabinet positions, now on a clean break from the administration. This means a major change for “the opposition”—a label that the Duterte propagandists claim is theirs. Tied to content that came from the last Maisug rally in Pampanga, where the older Duterte declared that they were not wanting to take down the Marcos government; and where the younger Duterte mayor insisted that all they were asking for was that the President “listen to the majority”—referring of course to themselves; the declaration of a stronger “opposition” now that the Vice President is free to be opposition, has become a very seamless narrative.

(more…)

I was asked in a women’s month forum about what to do with comments on women being weak leaders, the kind that we encounter on social media when we talk about being on the side of Robredo-Pangilinan in this heavily polarized electoral exercise. The context of course is the notion that we remain a heavily patriarchal society, and as such, there is a basic, illogical, refusal to even consider a woman leader.

My answer was simple: I do not think that VP Leni’s womanhood is what’s being attacked, as much as it is her person. And yes, those can be one and the same, but in this particular case, given propaganda against her that’s run its course the past six years, and has escalated across this campaign, hindi ito tungkol sa pagiging anti-woman, tungkol ito sa pagiging anti-Leni.

This is the same VP Leni that’s been called Leni Lugaw for years, na nag-evolve to Leni Lutang, at nag-evolve to Lenlen nitong nakaraang ilang buwan. These three things are interconnected, and are part of a bigger narrative against VP Leni that the other side has galvanized into massive black propaganda. And sure, Leni Lugaw started with Duterte supporters and propagandists, pero ang matindi sa social media, wala naman nang tumitingin saan nagsimula. Ang lagi lang natin nakikita ay kung ano ang nasa harap natin. Ibig sabihin, sa iba man nagmula ang Leni Lugaw at bagama’t simpleng paninira lang ito noon, iba ang gamit nito sa kasalukuyan ng kampanya. That the other side has been able to evolve it into two different things based solely on the exercise of spreading spliced videos and fake news that frame the vice president as incompetent and un-presidential—is the success of its campaign strat. They didn’t rest on the laurels of Lugaw, and as that was being turned into a positive, i.e., they shifted quickly to Lutang. (more…)

For six years we were in over our heads. We could barely keep up with Duterte, also because we couldn’t believe how he was pretty much getting away with the murder—figuratively and literally. Our institutions were discredited real quick—from basic rights, to our Constitution, to mainstream media—just as anti-people policies were implemented one after the other, and killings and violence escalated. As this unfolded the polarization was strengthened.

On one side, those of us who championed democracy and our institutions, even as we remained divided, through to the Liberal Party refusing unity slates in 2019 and 2022, and the Robredo campaign failing to claim unity and democracy as slogan for these times. It didn’t help that the people, especially on this side of democracy, refused and were un-interested in fashioning unities we deem important—it’s easier to fall back on the existing polarizations among us after all. This helped the other side, the Duterte government and its beneficiaries the Marcos-Arroyo tandem, with its anti-people and pro-China policies, to build its own “institutions” as option for its ever growing base of followers who needed “alternatives” to the media, intellectuals, academicians, historians, writers they had so discredited. Part of fashioning lies and falsity as the other truth, is making sure it can be repeated over and over again.

This polarization is what we are watching unfold as we stand here, with 56 days to go to May 9. And as I said earlier, these are actually two very different universes battling it out for people’s votes, and it is because of this that we cannot afford to be blinded by notions of hope and the massive rally turnouts for Robredo at this point. VP Leni herself has said “Crowds do not win elections,” but I would go beyond her suggestion that people go out to talk to family and neighbors. What needs to be done is to get to those who might not even know these rallies are happening because they are not online, have no proper or efficient access to mainstream media, and are inundated with paid-for content on local radio.

At hindi ito “pagpunta sa laylayan.” Hindi ito ang hinihingi. Makipag-usap sa kapwa-mamamayan. At hindi na ito mahirap gawin. Wala kaming lugar na hinanapan ng ground volunteer na hindi handang makipagusap. And if we ask the right questions, we get the answers we need: sinong iboboto ng mga komunidad? kilala ba nila si Robredo? Then you trust that they know these communities more than we ever could, and give them the help that they need—not the help we insist on giving them. (more…)

After the 2019 elections, I gave a short talk at an event in CubaoX and said very clearly and pointedly: this is a propaganda war. The 2019 results tell us that no matter student surveys, and good debate mileage, and better candidates, we are on a losing streak. The Liberal Party and the Left have public opinion going against it, no matter the delusions our social media echo chambers allow us to have. On ground, and in reality, a chunk of the population (43% is the number I’ve heard) are a hard no on LP, and going into the elections, this would be a hard no against VP Leni.

Did changing to the color pink from yellow mean anything? I think it did, especially for the middle and upper classes who are as incensed with LP and the kind of politics they stood for—2010 to 2016 is very very recent history after all. But the question now, with 61 days to go, is how far the pink has brought us, beyond our echo chambers, despite the rally numbers.

Yesterday a message went around calling on everyone to get out of echo chambers because despite the massive turnout and social and mainstream media noise about the consecutive rallies Robredo had last week, in reality the share of voice online was still dominated by Marcos. Again, as with surveys, this is data—real numbers that should tell us whether or not any and all parts of this campaign are going in the directions it needs to.

Do the surveys contradict the rally numbers? I don’t think so. The rallies and surveys come together as proof of the complexity of the electoral landscape. The numbers out there are important—these give the impression of mass support, and provides us with the content we need. But the numbers on the surveys are just as important, especially given how these also function as a way to prove mass support. (more…)

Katrina Stuart Santiago

Katrina Stuart Santiago

Tag Archives: Liberal Party

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