No, I don’t think Duterte is scared of China.

I think that he and his men entered into agreements with China, they signed on for projects and the Belt and Road Initiative, and now cannot even take a stand against whatever aggression our fishermen experience from the Chinese in West Philippines Sea. Government (i.e., the Philippines) is so deep in China deals that it has become difficult to even speak. Utang na loob is one of the more effective forms of silencing for Filipinos after all, and China — cunning as it is — doesn’t even need to invoke it; they just know someone like Duterte would feel so indebted there would be no way he would be able to take a stand.

Government propagandists call it “diplomacy.” But let’s assess this situation for what it is: Duterte put all his eggs in the China basket, and now he can’t even find his balls.

Here’s the ironic part though: China has realized that it doesn’t matter that they hold Duterte by the balls. It doesn’t matter because it doesn’t mean they can do all that they want with and in the Philippines. What it’s up against is the rest of us. And Philippine democracy — no matter how it’s been discredited and put into question by the success of Duterte propaganda — still has its balls intact.

Sure, we think they have gotten away with enough in the West Philippine Sea (and they have). With taking over our urban spaces — business and residential — as (illegal) migrant workers (as they have). With refusing to assimilate and adjust to the Philippines as host country, with some navigating our common spaces with a superiority complex (as more and more of us have experienced). The latter is of course unacceptable, but it is understandable: after all, when the leadership in your home country of China already thinks it can get away with the wanton takeover of common seas, ignoring Philippine rights and Filipino fishermen’s lives, why would you, as Chinese citizen, imagine you need to get along with Filipinos on land?

But there are many things China has been unable to just get away with, and probably a lot of promises made to them by Duterte and his men that they have been unable to fulfill —  and this, I think, is what gets them antsy and frustrated about dealing with the Philippines and its government, what has them acting out in the space that they’ve already wantonly taken over: the West Philippine Sea. 

The more obvious example would be the West Philippine Sea, and how no matter the “success” of the propaganda that taking a stand against China would mean being pushed into a war “na wala tayong kalaban-laban,” the opposition to, the struggle against, China’s aggressive moves in our shared waters and on our islands has continued in the public sphere. There’s the case filed by Conchita Carpio-Morales and Albert del Rosario against Xi Jin Ping himself. All the documentaries on the suffering of our fisherfolk in the hands of the Chinese. School fora and public discussions on Chinese aggression. Senators like Joel Villanueva and Nancy Binay questioning the presence of illegal Chinese workers doing jobs that Filipinos can do. 

But there are other sources of frustration. During the Senatorial campaign for 2019, a critical issue was China, from the  Kaliwa Dam to the Chico River Pump Irrigation project, agreements for which were revealed to be so one-sided in favour of China. The call then was for all these China loan agreements to be made public and brought to light; the call now is to continue to critique these agreements that have been proven to be anchored upon the wholesale of our resources to China, in the event that we are unable to pay for the growing and massive debt with which Duterte and his men will leave us. 

One can imagine Duterte and his men promising China that these projects can be implemented without a hitch. We can imagine them having conversations about ensuring that charter change happens which would give us little legal reason to question foreign ownership of land and resources. We can imagine them saying that they have control over public discourse, and that whatever little resistance that exists can be ignored, or dismissed.

But these are promises Duterte and this government cannot keep. Because while we might be unable to unite against Duterte (as of yet), we are united in our anger against China’s bullying, aggression, and wanton takeover of our seas, jobs, and even our urban spaces. It is clear to us that it is a superpower that is no different from the US — it’s just out to take control of our governance, it is out to take over our resources, it is out to make a puppet out of us. And we will not have any of it.

And China is realizing that now. Now that three years into Duterte’s presidency it is unable to make China projects move as swiftly as China wants.

It’s important to remind ourselves that China is NOT used to a populace that has a voice. It is not used to having its projects go through public scrutiny. It is not used to social media freedoms, where people can make as much noise as they can. And certainly they are not used to seeing people out on the streets, demanding accountability for <insert recent bullying tactic of China here>.

It is our democracy that China did not anticipate, and it is what it cannot handle. And in that sense, it is clear what promises Duterte and his men might have made: revolutionary government, charter change to federalism, martial law if necessary? These are all part of official Duterte rhetoric. It is no coincidence that these ideas that we know to be a threat to our democracy, are the same ideas that would make China happy as these allow them to imagine that Duterte and his men are in control.   

It would do China well to realize that they are not. And it would do us all well to realize that we are a part of this narrative, no matter how we’ve been discredited and divided by government propaganda. We just need to get our acts together to make it a stronger, more powerful collective voice — one that will remind China time and again that it has no business in this democracy, and which should remind Duterte that there are some things we will unite for. Just you wait. ***