To say that this year’s Independence Day was the most difficult one to experience would be an understatement. That it was riddled with friends from across the political spectrum sending me messages asking about what the hell is going on, where are we going, what are we doing—asked with equal parts dismay and disgust—is as one expects if you have friends like mine who are not delusional about 2022.

And I do think that there are many many of us who can see what is wrong with what is currently happening on our side of the fence, just as there are many of us who can tell that so far what it’s looking like is that we’re going to repeat the mistakes of 2016 and 2019, where elitism, blindness, divisiveness on our side played a huge part in losing the elections to Duterte and his people.

But 2022 can only be worse. Because we now know that this divide is a huge gaping hole when we consider how it disenfranchises the majority of voters who will—as surveys show—go for other candidates.

We all know by now that we are doomed to repeat things we do not learn from.

Divided
To start with: a display of no unity at the protest action for Atin Ang Pinas, a motorcade that led to the Chinese Embassy in Makati, where the Left side of the political spectrum spent the morning. And rightfully so, as there is no talking about independence in the present, without talking about Duterte’s subservience to China, giving it all that it wants, from infrastructure projects (dams, bridges) to space for its gambling businesses and casinos, from basic services (electricity, telecoms) to the West Philippine Sea, and becoming its market for vaccines.

It would’ve been the best display of unity had 1Sambayan joined that protest, after all it is our China crisis that has landed its main personalities on mainstream media platforms. But we weren’t going to be treated to a display of unity there.

Instead, in the afternoon, 1Sambayan had an online show that had as centerpiece the announcement of its prospective candidates. Which, as expected, did nothing more than further divide us on this side, kicking-off another round of Liberals insisting that VP Leni is the only choice; and all of us who are imagining differently because we want to think more deeply about 2022, we want to talk winnability, and surveys—we’re all just wrong.

To be fair, the work that 1Sambayan wants to do is difficult, and one realizes that even as we might be all united in the belief that Duterte leadership cannot continue, what divides us at this point is exactly what has divided us the past five years (and what lost us the 2019 elections). It’s the Liberals—its supporters, propagandists, whoever carries its flag—insisting that only their choice matters; it’s their predisposition to repeat elitist rhetoric (and defend it with false dichotomies and wrong assessments) and speak down on anybody who disagrees with them. It’s how they turn to redtagging themselves, and to blaming the Left, whenever there is an opportunity to do so.

That they do not realize this is losing VP Leni votes as we speak, is really our crisis, too.

Dispersed
If there’s anything we need to have learned from 2019 (and 2016), as well as Duterte’s past five years, it’s that disunity is one thing, dispersed energies are another. Because we have seen the other side disunited on many many issues, but their energies are never dispersed, their focus is always clear—and that has been to keep this government afloat through massive propaganda.

But just as we cannot act on the things that unite us, so we continue to be dispersed in terms of our actions.

Also on June 12, Team Leni Robredo was launched, obviously already the beginnings of her presidential campaign, branding and all, in that bright fuchsia that was the campaign color of Imee Marcos. They talked about VP Leni’s genuine heart, her goal to help the people—which of course is what every candidate will say about themselves. They played a video of a new song by Taumbayan, which was also played during the 1Sambayan event earlier in the day.

Across 1Sambayan and TLR, what one sees is a clear evasion of a conversation about issues. Stuck as these events are in talking about personalities (who’s running, who’s supporting these initiatives), what these fail to do is bring up all the things that have politicized so many the past year. Focused as we are on personalities, we are missing the opportunity to first unite people on our side on the issues that we all agree now are important: healthcare, human rights, the environment, freedoms, the anti-terror law, China.

Focused as we are on who we want, we fail to look at who has the bigger chances of winning this with us, who we can see as allies, in this task of winning against a continuation of Duterte (be it another Duterte, Marcos, Pacquiao, or Go).

There is a refusal to believe surveys for those on the side of VP Leni, but anyone who has worked on any electoral campaign would know that surveys matter. It matters to those who will put out the millions your candidate needs to win an election. It matters because it gives you leverage, mileage, power. It matters because people want to go for a winning candidate—and no, cancelling people who don’t think the way you do on Twitter, or attacking anyone who so much us questions what you’re doing—that doesn’t make anyone believe you have a winning candidate.

Yes, it is clear to us that we want to end Duterte, and discontinue his kind of leadership. But we obviously are not willing to put in the analysis and work that has to go into making sure that will happen for us in 2022.

And lest it’s not clear, the notion that all it takes is a bunch of volunteers, that all it takes is to become one loud voice on social media saying the same thing, that all it takes is a trending hashtag or ten—that is just not true. And while one can imagine it to be possible in the future, for which we might be able to fashion better elections, there is just no time to do it for 2022.

As such the question really is this. If we want to end Duterte in 2022, isn’t it too high a risk to be handling this election like it’s 2016? Isn’t it too high a risk to be all idealistic and bright-eyed and bushy-tailed? Isn’t it too high a risk to be blindly optimistic about elections at this point in time?

Certainly, given everything that’s at stake for 2022, we can all agree this is not the time to be delusional. ***