It’s become more and more unbelievable, more and more absurd, as Duterte’s military men try to build a narrative plot for what they insist is a destabilization project against the government, one that is also about ousting the President.

Interestingly enough, while they get media mileage for this equally hilarious and dangerous exercise, the nation is falling deeper into crisis — and it’s forecast to get worse. But instead of actually working on this crisis, government is using media mileage to talk about the purported Red October plot. On the surface, this is nothing but the Duterte government trying (and failing!) to use Marcos era tactics to sow fear, insisting that the Left and <insert government enemies here> are about to take over, so that at some point, government can create its own staged proof of destabilization, i.e., a car ambush ala Enrile, a bombing here, a bombing there, and what-have-you.

But we know better now. And the only way we CAN keep this manufactured plot from gaining credibility with the public is to reveal it for what it is: another (failed!) Duterte strategy to create the conditions that would make his dictatorship acceptable and necessary. Certainly by listing down all these groups and people who are purportedly part of “a plot,” they also seek to discourage us all from speaking out.

An important fact about this government: we need to keep track of information that it spews out, because so much falls through the cracks, and it lives off manufactured noise. It’s only when we have a sense of how they’re spinning discourse that we can take a clear collective stance against these dictatorial moves. It’s also a way of stopping it before it escalates.

Here, what looks like the steps this government took towards its failed DIY ouster plot project.

Step 1: Duterte thoughtlessly decides to revoke the amnesty of Senator Trillanes, while away on an official trip to Israel, spending millions of taxpayers’ money with an official delegation. Later, Malacañang claims the President didn’t get enough media coverage, which is why he has a tete-a-tete on live TV. Airtime all to himself! Done like a true drama queen.

Step 2: Arriving from his junket, este, official trip, Duterte starts talking about an alleged plot to oust him — also a roundabout way to warn the military against staging a coup d’etat. The latter, Duterte’s lackey Robin Padilla had thoughtlessly revealed, is really government’s issue with Trillanes. On September 8, Duterte said:

I will show you but somebody in this government will… Tatlong ‘yan, bantayan ninyo. Iyang Yellow, Liberals; Trillanes; pati ang politburo. They have a… We will show it to you. Kaya kayong mga sundalo before you jump into the conclusion about — tanungin ninyo intelligence ninyo and they will show you. <…> So tatlo ‘yan, they are praying for my ouster. You know, kung kayo-kayo lang niyan, magbakbakan lang tayo, matulog na lang ako. <…> Kudeta, kudeta, wala ‘yan. It does not — it does not even the word appeal to me at all. Kung idealist ka man o de prinsipyo ka na tao. ‘Yang tatlong ‘yan bantayan ninyo. Iyan ‘yung mag-a-oust na  — oust Duterte and it will go into a higher — October ganun. Bantayan ninyo ‘yan kay ‘yang tatlo na ‘yan konektado lahat ‘yan. Ang problema sa — itong kay Trillanes is, he is also playing with the Communist Party of the Philippines.

On Sept 10, the Philippine National Police (PNP) says they are checking on Duterte’s claims. So apparently the President was keeping the intel all to himself, and making claims without having the military and police check on it first. At the tete-a-tete on September 11, among other plot-related statements, Duterte says: “the  connection <among these groups> will be shown any day now.”

Step 3: Duterte’s men in the military try to follow orders and scramble to connect the groups Duterte had named. They confirm that the plot is real through the AFP’s Carlito Galvez, who weaves this convoluted story of how it’s happening through the Movement Against Tyranny, which has organized the Liberal Party and Tindig Pilipinas, and the Magdalo Group. It started in September 2017, when MAT was launched.

An aside: I was convenor of MAT, and was there from its start until middle of this year. And no, the Liberal Party or Tindig Pilipinas was never a part of it, neither was the Magdalo Group. And just so it’s clear, convenors included actor-director Audie Gemora, former Senator Rene Saguisag, CMFR’s Vergel Santos, among others — all NOT Left, and certainly NOT CPP-NPA.  

All groups deny the AFP’s claims of an ouster plot.

Step 4: Unable to respond credibly to ALL media questions about how government might prove this ouster plot, and given an uneventful September 21 protest action in Luneta (save for Duterte’s own people being paid to go to the protest, complete with new shirts and tarpaulins declaring their support for government), the military declares it fizzled out as proven by the absence of Tindig Pilipinas and Magdalo at the rally. (NOTE: In fact members of Tindig Pilipinas were there, but who cares about facts right?) 

Duterte propagandists declare: Ang galing talaga mag-psy-war ni Tatay Digong! 

Step 5: Duterte’s military men are pushed to the wall, because they need to prove this ouster plot true. They come up with: the urban power fighting for their right to homes, and factor workers fighting for their right to regularization and just wages.

The Kadamay’s takeover of idle homes, the AFP declared, that’s part of the ouster plot! Never mind that it happened in March 2017, more than a year ago, never mind that Duterte himself gave up those houses and said he would just build the military better ones. And why not throw in workers’ strikes across the country for good measure? THOSE are certainly part of the destabilization plot, because what do workers have to complain about?

Step 6: Duterte’s military men insist that the farm raided in Rizal on September 25 is a safehouse of the NPA, so they can connect it to the ouster plot. But the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) says otherwise — they had raided the farm owned by a Chinese businesswoman who was reported to have threatened the life of a former business partner. NBI insists there is NO PROOF that the farm itself and its ownership, and its raid, is connected to an ouster plot.

The police side with the NBI. Earlier, the PNP had said that while they get “persistent” intelligence information that alleges there are groups building alliances, it’s “not necessarily patalsikin ‘yung present administration pero ‘yung siraan ‘yung present administration.”

So “paninira” lang? How is THAT part of an ouster plot?

Step 7: Show documentary evidence. On September 28, AFP claims they have seized laptops with documents that detail the ouster plot. These are documents with SECRET written on its cover page. They can’t release the whole document because it’s, uh, top secret, as that cover page states.

Step 8: Take it back. Faced with Senators on October 3, the AFP takes back its claim that the Liberal Party (and in effect Tindig Pilipinas) are part of the ouster plot. Earlier, on September 24, the Philippine Army denied there were any recruitment activities in the AFP, discrediting Duterte’s own insistence that there is a coup brewing. On September 29, the PNP leadership also promises no involvement in an ouster plot, and claims loyalty to the Constitution. This, after Tindig Pilipinas, LP, the Magdalo Group, and MAT deny a plot even exists.

Step 9: The mad scramble to please Duterte and make this ouster plot believable continues. Without the Liberal Party and Magdalo, without MAT, and the military and police, how does Duterte prove this plot even exists? That it might gather steam, and is reason for fear (his) and loathing (his)?

So Duterte’s military adds more ingredients to this p(l)ot. Say, 17 universities, where students are purportedly recruited. How are they being recruited? Through film showings! All those Martial Law film screenings are a way to recruit people into this purported ouster plot. The creative sector is to blame! And while we’re at it, those teachers! teaching students rebellious ideas! they are part of this plot too and should be held in contempt.

Step 9 just happened today.

And this IS as absurd as it sounds, a hodge-podge of stories being brought together to build a narrative that might prove Red October truly exists. So far of course, it is failing. And it’s not just failing because Duterte and his men are lying — they are in fact the ones who want to do a revolutionary government that will give Duterte (or Bongbong Marcos) ALL THE POWER, as they’ve talked about since 2016 — it’s failing because we will not be bullied. We will not be scared into silence or submission. And we will not believe the propaganda that this government spews, be it against the Liberal Party or against the Left. WE KNOW BETTER.

After all, what Mocha is saying is exactly the same as what Duterte’s military men are saying: and we all know how the former has made it her business to spread lies and falsity in then name of protecting Duterte. ***